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10/04/2009 - Added by PB
Raise the price of gas to $4 – before the next oil crunch
A price floor would help wean America off oil.
By Erica Etelson
from the February 23, 2009 edition
BERKELEY, CALIF. - Remember last summer, when gas prices broke new records every day and the era of "energy independence" was on the horizon? Gas is half what it was then, but not for long. When OPEC's planned production cuts hit, tightening the global supply of oil just when economies are poised to resume growth, the world may well face the worst oil crunch in history.
The way to avert the brunt of that? It might not be pretty at first, but a price floor – a government-mandated minimum – on retail gas will buy us the time we need to wean us off the oil.
Oil's prognosis is grim for one reason: When prices are low, oil companies do not invest in new projects. That means we are draining global reserves without replacing spare capacity. From North Dakota to Kuwait, new projects that looked lucrative when every barrel fetched $147 got shelved when prices plunged. Many of these developments will resume when prices rebound but, because it takes years before oil from a new field reaches the market, it will be too late.
Cheap oil has been the engine driving US economic growth for decades; its evil twin is pricey oil and, given time, it will drive our economy over a cliff.
The effects of oil scarcity are by now well understood: soaring food prices, social unrest, geopolitical conflict – euphemisms for hunger, food riots, and war.
Last spring, hungry masses in Haiti, Bangladesh, Egypt, and other countries took to the streets, burning cars and looting stores over skyrocketing food prices. Consider it a preview of what's to come – abroad and here at home – if we do not leave oil before it leaves us.
During the summer of our discontent, pressure mounted to make long-overdue improvements to our national rail and inner city transit systems and to reengineer electric grids for wind energy. But the collapse of oil prices threatens to zap the political will to usher in the postcarbon era.
Surveys indicate that Americans who flocked to buses and trains this summer are getting back behind the wheel now that gas is a bargain again, and politicians who promised a clean energy future are now promising to build new highway lanes.
American voters and leaders need to act as though gas were still at $4 a gallon and put in place policies and spending priorities that will enable us to survive $5 or even $10 a gallon gas. We must work, play, eat, build, live, and legislate as though we will be scraping the bottom of the oil barrel in a decade.
With a growing world population that is ever more hungry for oil, it is just a matter of time before demand outstrips supply. The only sensible way to prepare for this is to stretch global reserves, making them last long enough to develop alternatives.
Oil may be in short supply, but ideas for how to wean ourselves from it are not. When oil prices were high, a cacophony of voices put forward a broad range of policy initiatives; some, such as reinstating the 55 mph speed limit, were sound; others, such as investing in ethanol, misguided. President Obama has at his disposal an experienced team of economic and environmental advisers who are more than capable of culling the best ideas.
Meanwhile, the one measure that should and could be instituted immediately is a floor for the retail price of gas. If, for example, the minimum were $4 a gallon and the market price was $2, the government would pocket the difference and find itself with billions to spend on mass transit.
Consumers will gripe, but they'll soon find solace in the reliable, affordable buses and trains they'll ride when gas prices soar beyond reach. For low-income individuals who would truly suffer as a result of such a policy, a payroll tax offset or refundable tax credit can ease the burden.
It's tempting to place energy security toward the middle of the nation's long to-do list. But delay presents immense risks. If the next oil crunch hits us while we're still down, all the bailouts in the world won't save us.
Erica Etelson is a journalist and the founder of the Berkeley Oil Independence Task Force.
04/02/2009
16/06/2008 - added by HH
For Earth, a carbon price is priceless.
Author argues that increasing fuel prices (ie. the usual neo-con market forces arguement) alone will not have any marked effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions without a seperate carbon tax and may actually increase emissions due to a proven technology of using coal to produce oil.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/global-warming/for-earth-a-carbon-price-is-priceless/2008/06/15/1213468233983.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
27/05/2008 created by PDB
http://www.ask500people.com/questions/do-you-think-global-oil-supply-has-peaked
19/05/2008 - Saturday's Courier Mail article calls for fuel rationing from Macnamara Report
Email sent to Dr Brendan Nelson and the Liberal Party on the 17/05/2008 by Peter Berkeley
I was disappointed to read in Friday’s Australian that you are advocating a reduction in fuel excise by 5 cents per litre. Brendan, this is not leadership. With mounting evidence that the peak in oil production has occurred and the daily reports on the severity and speed of climate change being far worst than most scientists predicted, I find it disconcerting that you and the liberal party would view this as a sound, forward thinking policy position.
I understand the link between fuel prices and increased living costs associated with the transportation of goods and family's need to access services. What I do not understand is the lack of recognition by politicians and political parties generally that we can continue to go on wasting a critical resource like oil with no consideration of the long term impacts on the economy, environment and community at large.
If you want to look after families focus on reducing the transport costs for freight and transport of essential goods and services, improving public transport and bicycle and pedestrian facilities. If you want to point score then keep on with your current approach but I can assure you it will be cold comfort for families and Australian communities in the long run.
The reality is that people will rarely change behaviour without some form of external motivation. The rising cost of petrol motivates people to think about how they get around, where they live, where they work, what they do. By way of comparison, I do not see you calling for a reduction in the cost of water. In fact the trend across Australia is to increase the cost to motivate people to reduce and conserve the use a valuable life sustaining resource. Oil is no different.
A lot of travel by private motor vehicle is discretionary and a significant amount is over distances that can ably be met by walking, cycling and public transport or a combination of these 3 modes. Research has shown that around 50% of private vehicle trips in Australian cities are 5kms or less. Distances that can easily be walked or cycled.
Australia can no longer tolerate knee jerk, vote grabbing responses - like a 5 cent reduction in fuel excise - to the issues that define the complex challenging times we find ourselves in. In this day and age, if you and the Liberal Party want to play point scoring games against the Labor Party then I would have to question why you are in politics and why your party exists. If you want to make a difference to our collective future, start articulating policies that acknowledge the difficult times that are fast approaching, policies that define a course of action which responds in a meaningful way to the issues and compels the Government to catch-up and rise to your challenge.
Interview with Richard Heinberg on ABC'c Lateline. Read Transcript
(Taken from the Energy and Capital Newsletter from the 8th January)
Here's what the IEA said:
"An abrupt escalation of oil prices after 2015 as a result of a global supply crisis
cannot be ruled out.
. . . it is very uncertain whether new oil production in the period to 2015 will be enough
to compensate for the natural falloff in output from existing oil fields and keep pace with
the projected increase in demand.
The consequences of unfettered growth in world energy demand are alarming."
Fuel-laden tanker hijacked from
"... I am firmly of the belief that over the course of the next year or two,
Curtis Bay, emptied
Authorities said there was no evidence that the hijacking of the tanker, found in Washington, was linked to terrorism. (AP photo / October 19, 2007) With the cost of fuel on the rise, there have been scattered reports around the county over the past year of thefts of diesel fuel and the tankers that carry it. In this landmark report we're releasing today, we detail how you can prepare yourself and profit from the end of the oil era.
Earlier in 2007, the world's top oil investment banker and former energy advisor to
Bush and Cheney -Matthew Simmons- told a stunned Bloomberg audience that oil
could reach $300 a barrel, and...
this issue of peak oil will replace global warming as an issue that we're
all worrying, debating and talking about." -Matthew Simmons on Bloomberg
Recently, Simmons was quoted saying...
"This [oil] crisis, leads to social chaos."
We couldn't agree more. In fact, we're already seeing signs of unrest. In Nigeria,
more than 1,000 foreign oil workers have been either kidnapped or murdered in
the last 3 years.
In October, a man in China was killed when a riot occurred over diesel fuel rationing.
And in our hometown of Baltimore, not too far from our office, a fuel tanker was stolen
at gunpoint.
Criminals know where the profit opportunities are...
And so do we.
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